ShoNuff
cac3cde372
- migration-plan-app4-core-bu-2026-09-15.md: 8-phase plan (Nuremberg decision, provider-diversity gap, acceptance criteria, rollback, DNS/Caddy checklist) - core-service-inventory-2026-09-15: verified Core inventory, ~30 customer-facing services (the Aug 15 plan listed 5), 3 DocuSeal instances, TimeTrex Postgres, dead Caddy routes - reference-update-matrix-2026-09-15: 52 artifacts that name a host - fix naming collision: 6 files called the Hetzner box core-bu, the name core-bu now claims; app1-bu = 5.161.225.131, core-bu = 159.195.204.203 (netcup Nuremberg) - correct the false provider-diversity claim (the standby is now netcup too) - supersede app4-migration-plan.md (wrong region reported, silent on core-bu)
128 lines
6.2 KiB
Markdown
128 lines
6.2 KiB
Markdown
# Standby Host Replacement: app1-bu Cost and Location Review
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**Date:** 2026-09-14
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**Status:** Recommendation, awaiting decision
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**Author:** Sho'Nuff
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**Source of truth:** Hetzner invoice 086001081978 (2026-08-27, period 07/2026) + live Hetzner Cloud API pull, 2026-09-14
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## Verdict (BLUF)
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The DR plan records app1-bu at roughly $14/mo. That is wrong. The real figure is **EUR 31.99/mo for the CPX21 alone, EUR 37.06/mo all in** (about USD 40.39). The fix is not a new provider. It is the **same box in a different location**: Hetzner Falkenstein or Nuremberg prices the identical CPX21 at **EUR 9.49/mo**.
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**Recommendation: move the standby from Ashburn to fsn1 or nbg1. Saves EUR 22.50/mo (USD 294/yr) and closes a real diversity gap at the same time.**
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## What the invoice actually shows
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Invoice 086001081978, period 07/2026, net EUR 114.44, 0% VAT.
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It is not one server. The July bill carried eleven servers mid-teardown plus supporting resources:
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| Line | Item | Qty | Unit | EUR |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Backup (20% of instance price) | 3 | | 7.23 |
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| 2 | CPX11 | 1 hr | 0.0280 | 0.03 |
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| 3 | CPX11 | 4 x 1,368 hr | 0.0096 | 13.13 |
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| 4 | CPX21 | 3 x 1,069 hr | 0.0192 | 20.52 |
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| 5 | CPX21 | 2 x 571 hr | 0.0513 | 29.29 |
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| 6 | CPX21 | 1 month | 11.99 | 11.99 |
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| 7 | CPX41 | 1 x 359 hr | 0.0625 | 22.44 |
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| 8 | Primary IPv4 | 11 x 3,368 hr | 0.0008 | 2.69 |
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| 9 | Primary IPv4 | 1 month | 0.5000 | 0.50 |
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| 10 | Snapshot | 462.289 GB-mo | 0.0143 | 6.61 |
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| 11-13 | Traffic | | | 0.00 |
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The EUR 114.44 is a July artifact, not today's run rate. Most of those servers no longer exist.
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Note line 5: two CPX21 instances at **EUR 0.0513/hr**. That is the Ashburn hourly rate, and it is the same rate the API reports today. Line 4 at EUR 0.0192/hr is the EU rate. The 3.5x US premium is visible inside a single invoice.
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## What is actually live today
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Live API pull, 2026-09-14. Exactly **one** server remains:
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- **app1-bu.itpropartner.com**, id 151357515, CPX21, 3 vCPU / 4 GB / 80 GB, location **ash** (Ashburn, VA), status running, created 2026-07-15, public IPv4 5.161.225.131, backups **disabled**
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- 2 primary IPs (IPv4 + IPv6), both assigned to that server
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- 9 snapshots, 319.2 GB total
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- 0 volumes, 0 firewalls
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### Current monthly run rate
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| Component | EUR/mo |
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|---|---|
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| CPX21 in Ashburn | 31.99 |
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| Primary IPv4 | 0.50 |
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| Snapshot storage (319.2 GB at 0.0143) | 4.57 |
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| **Total** | **37.06** (~USD 40.39) |
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### Same stack in an EU location
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| Component | EUR/mo |
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|---|---|
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| CPX21 in fsn1 or nbg1 | 9.49 |
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| Primary IPv4 | 0.50 |
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| Snapshot storage | 4.57 |
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| **Total** | **14.56** (~USD 15.87) |
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**Delta: EUR 22.50/mo, EUR 270.00/yr, about USD 294/yr.**
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## The diversity finding
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The rule is that a netcup outage must not take out both Core and its standby. Today both sit in the same US East corridor: Core in Manassas, VA and app1-bu in Ashburn, VA. That is roughly 150 miles and one weather system, one grid region, one set of upstream transit providers.
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Provider diversity is satisfied. Regional diversity is not.
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Falkenstein or Nuremberg fixes it. The standby would move from the same corridor as production to a separate continent, which is what a warm standby is supposed to be.
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## Options
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**Option A: Move the standby to Hetzner fsn1 or nbg1 (RECOMMENDED)**
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- Cost: EUR 14.56/mo all in, down from EUR 37.06
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- Keeps the entire runbook: Hetzner API, rescue mode with key injection, snapshot tooling, S3 restore path
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- Improves regional diversity from 150 miles to 4,000
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- Latency Core to standby rises from roughly 10ms to roughly 95ms. The 10-minute failover poll does not care, and a 1.17 GB DB sync at that latency is still tens of seconds
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- Reversibility: high. This is a rebuild from the standby deploy script plus an S3 restore. Nine snapshots and the S3 backup chain remain as the safety net throughout
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- Risk: low. Same provider, same tooling, same image lineage
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**Option B: Move to a US provider with monthly billing and a real API (DigitalOcean 2 GiB verified at USD 12.00/mo)**
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- Keeps latency low and adds a genuinely separate provider on top of netcup
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- Breaks the API-driven recovery runbook, which is Hetzner-specific. Rescue mode, key injection, and scripted power control would all need rewriting and re-testing
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- Price per resource is worse than Hetzner EU: USD 12.00 for 2 GiB / 1 vCPU against EUR 9.49 for 4 GiB / 3 vCPU
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- Vultr and Akamai/Linode price per region, so a specific number requires a per-region pull
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**Option C: Stay in Ashburn at EUR 31.99**
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- Rejected. Paying 3.4x for the same instance, in the same corridor as production
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**Rejected: SSD Nodes prepaid**
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- 14-day refund window then a 1 to 3 year commitment, an overselling reputation, and a thin API. Wrong profile for the asset that has to work when everything else is down
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## Dead storage on the account
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Snapshot review, same API pull:
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- 3 wphost02 snapshots, **151.6 GB, EUR 2.17/mo**, for a host decommissioned 2026-08-28
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- 1 legacy snapshot "Back-online" (2026-06-05), **112.1 GB, EUR 1.60/mo**, superseded by the current weekly chain
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- 1 legacy snapshot "migration-complete" (2025-11-23), 7.6 GB, EUR 0.11/mo
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- 4 current app1-bu weeklies, 48.0 GB, EUR 0.69/mo, KEEP
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Removing the decommissioned and superseded snapshots saves **EUR 3.88/mo, EUR 46.55/yr**. Not proposed for silent deletion. Confirm first, per standing rule.
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## Combined opportunity
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| Action | EUR/mo | USD/yr |
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| Relocate standby to EU | 22.50 | 294 |
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| Retire dead snapshots | 3.88 | 51 |
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| **Total** | **26.38** | **345** |
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## Record correction required
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The DR plan records the app1-bu line as a CPX21 at roughly $14/mo. Both halves are wrong:
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1. **Price:** the Ashburn CPX21 is EUR 31.99/mo, not about $14
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2. **Spec:** CPX21 is 3 vCPU / 4 GB / 80 GB, not 4C/8G
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Corrections should land in the DR plan v2 and any derived runbook once the location decision is made, so the standby budget is not understated again.
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## Rebuild procedure
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Reference the `hermes-standby-deployment` skill. Sequence: create CPX21 in fsn1 or nbg1, run the standby deploy script, restore from s3://hermes-vps-backups/live/, verify the failover cron and the 10-minute health check, then destroy the Ashburn instance. Keep the Ashburn box alive until the EU standby passes a restore test. Backed up is not finished; a confirmed restore test is.
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