185 lines
13 KiB
JSON
185 lines
13 KiB
JSON
{
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"synthesis_meta": {
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"version": "2.2",
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"seat": "Band C — Synthesis & Integrity Gate",
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"reviewer_model": "Kimi K2.6",
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"date": "2026-08-12",
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"panel_composition": "8 judges (Band A × 4 + Band B × 4) across 3 proposals",
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"missing_models": ["GPT-5.6 Sol (subagent-incompatible)", "Anthropic Opus 5 (credit exhaustion)"],
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"coverage": "8 of 11 v2.2 seats reporting (73%)"
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},
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"product_thesis_test": {
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"thesis": "Multi-judge panel must show >0.5 point advantage over single-model (Opus 5) mean to justify premium pricing",
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"result": "FAIL",
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"overall_panel_mean": 4.943,
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"overall_opus5_baseline_mean": 5.343,
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"overall_delta": -0.400,
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"per_proposal": {
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"rfp_tank": {
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"panel_mean": 4.400,
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"opus5_baseline_mean": 4.933,
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"delta": -0.533,
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"result": "FAIL"
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},
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"venturebuilt_v2": {
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"panel_mean": 6.138,
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"opus5_baseline_mean": 6.100,
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"delta": 0.038,
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"result": "FAIL"
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},
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"cartmysupply": {
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"panel_mean": 4.288,
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"opus5_baseline_mean": 5.000,
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"delta": -0.712,
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"result": "FAIL"
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}
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},
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"why_thesis_fails": "The panel does not elevate scores; it sharpens error detection. All three proposals contain severe, cross-cutting flaws (fatal execution gaps, competitive mispositioning, legal/compliance blockers) that additional specialist scrutiny exposes more precisely. The value proposition of the panel is variance reduction and error catching, not score inflation. In this batch, the proposals themselves are the limiting factor—no amount of review sophistication can raise scores on fundamentally broken business cases. The Opus 5 solo baseline was already directionally correct; the panel adds precision but not points."
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},
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"proposal_synthesis": {
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"rfp_tank_v1_0": {
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"panel_scores": {
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"band_a_primary_opus5": 5.3,
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"band_a_cc_b_gemini": 6.7,
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"band_a_cc_c_deepseek": 6.2,
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"band_a_legal_qwen": 3.0,
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"band_b_financial_minimax": 4.0,
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"band_b_team_kimi": 4.0,
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"band_b_market_gemini": 3.0,
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"band_b_execution_deepseek": 3.0
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},
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"statistics": {
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"panel_mean": 4.400,
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"panel_median": 4.0,
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"panel_stddev": 1.390,
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"panel_min": 3.0,
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"panel_max": 6.7,
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"panel_spread": 3.7,
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"opus5_baseline_mean": 4.933,
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"opus5_baseline_spread": 1.4,
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"baseline_delta": -0.533,
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"variance_vs_solo": "Panel spread (3.7) > Solo spread (1.4) — specialist divergence on severity exceeds intra-model variance"
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},
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"outlier_flags_1_5_sigma": [
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{
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"judge": "band_a_cc_b_gemini",
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"score": 6.7,
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"distance_from_mean_sigma": 1.65,
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"flag": "OUTLIER — quantitative challenge warranted",
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"rationale": "Gemini Pro Band A scored 6.7, the highest of the panel, while its own Band B Market specialist scored 3.0 on the same proposal. The 6.7 was driven by praising CLEATUS competitive positioning as 'already occupies $39-250/mo' — which is actually a negative finding that should lower, not raise, the score. The Band A generalist lens overweighted infrastructure and build-sequence optimism while missing the competitive reality that CLEATUS is a direct, funded rival. Cross-seat inconsistency within the same model (Gemini: 6.7 vs 3.0) is the strongest evidence that the 6.7 is an outlier."
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}
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],
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"verdict": "NO GO",
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"verdict_rationale": "The 8-judge panel converges on a mean of 4.4/10, below the Opus 5 baseline of 4.9. The specialist Band B judges (avg 3.5) identify four fatal execution blockers: (1) Financial: 3 mutually inconsistent Y1 revenue figures ($1.2M, $1.361M, $372K) and 22% MRR ramp inconsistency; (2) Team: Solo founder 10-week build for a 7-feature AI SaaS is not credible, contingent hiring is a catch-22; (3) Market: CLEATUS is a real, funded ($4M seed) competitor with public PLG pricing at $39-$250/mo, directly occupying the same quadrant; (4) Execution: 5 of 7 features marked TO BUILD with HIGH effort, real-time Compliance Copilot requires 2-3 devs for 8-12 weeks, not 4 weeks solo. The Legal judge (3.0) adds CRITICAL findings: no privacy policy, no ToS, FAR/CUI exposure, ITAR on German infrastructure. The panel is unanimous that this proposal cannot ship as scoped."
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},
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"venturebuilt_v2": {
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"panel_scores": {
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"band_a_primary_opus5": 6.9,
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"band_a_cc_b_gemini": 6.2,
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"band_a_cc_c_deepseek": 6.4,
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"band_a_legal_qwen": 6.5,
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"band_b_financial_minimax": 8.2,
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"band_b_team_kimi": 4.4,
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"band_b_market_gemini": 7.7,
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"band_b_execution_deepseek": 2.8
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},
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"statistics": {
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"panel_mean": 6.138,
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"panel_median": 6.45,
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"panel_stddev": 1.758,
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"panel_min": 2.8,
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"panel_max": 8.2,
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"panel_spread": 5.4,
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"opus5_baseline_mean": 6.100,
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"opus5_baseline_spread": 2.4,
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"baseline_delta": 0.038,
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"variance_vs_solo": "Panel spread (5.4) > Solo spread (2.4) — execution divergence drives bimodal distribution (Financial 8.2 vs Execution 2.8)"
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},
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"outlier_flags_1_5_sigma": [
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{
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"judge": "band_b_execution_deepseek",
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"score": 2.8,
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"distance_from_mean_sigma": 1.91,
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"flag": "OUTLIER — quantitative challenge warranted",
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"rationale": "DeepSeek V4 Pro Execution score of 2.8 is 1.91σ below the panel mean. The score is driven by contractor budget being broken 4-7x ($1,500/mo implies $11-22/hr vs market $75-100/hr), architecture regressed from v1 (no schema, no API contract), and founder workload impossibility (37 engagements + 950 hrs + MSP day job). However, the Band B Team judge (Kimi, 4.4) and Band A judges (6.2-6.9) all acknowledge the same workload problem but weight it less severely. The 2.8 may be an aggressive penalty for a CONDITIONAL GO case. Conversely, the 2.8 is the only score that forces the execution feasibility issue into the verdict. Without it, the panel would average 6.6 and potentially overstate viability."
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},
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{
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"judge": "band_b_financial_minimax",
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"score": 8.2,
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"distance_from_mean_sigma": 1.17,
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"flag": "NOT OUTLIER — within 1.5σ",
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"rationale": "Financial score of 8.2 is 1.17σ above mean. While high, it is directionally consistent: the financials are the strongest dimension of this proposal (arithmetic honest, only 2 minor discrepancies). The Band B Financial judge is the only specialist who found near-flawless math. This score is credible and not flagged as an outlier."
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}
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],
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"verdict": "CONDITIONAL GO",
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"verdict_rationale": "The panel mean (6.14) is statistically tied to the Opus 5 baseline (6.10), but the panel reveals a bimodal split: Financial (8.2) and Market (7.7) are strong, while Execution (2.8) and Team (4.4) are weak. The 8-judge panel's critical value is catching the execution outlier that the solo baseline underweighted. Specific conditions: (C1) Fix contractor budget — $1,500/mo buys 105-140 hrs at market rates, leaving ~800 hrs on founder; increase to $7,500/mo or cut scope. (C2) Re-scope Year 2 from run-rate to recognized-revenue basis — the healthy scenario actually loses ~$11K-$18K when recognized. (C3) Fix uniqueness claim — LivePlan Plan Review + IdeaProof already exist. (C4) Add named contractor with sourcing plan before Phase 2. (C5) Map Y1→Y2 GTM bridge — 8 net-new signups/mo is unmodeled. (C6) Legal: Data protection and trademark clearance must be complete before Phase 0-1."
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},
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"cartmysupply": {
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"panel_scores": {
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"band_a_primary_deepseek": 4.3,
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"band_a_cc_b_gemini": 5.9,
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"band_a_cc_c_deepseek": 3.8,
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"band_a_legal_qwen": 3.5,
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"band_b_financial_minimax": 5.0,
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"band_b_team_kimi": 3.7,
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"band_b_market_gemini": 4.8,
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"band_b_execution_deepseek": 3.3
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},
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"statistics": {
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"panel_mean": 4.288,
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"panel_median": 4.15,
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"panel_stddev": 0.890,
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"panel_min": 3.3,
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"panel_max": 5.9,
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"panel_spread": 2.6,
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"opus5_baseline_mean": 5.000,
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"opus5_baseline_spread": 1.8,
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"baseline_delta": -0.712,
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"variance_vs_solo": "Panel spread (2.6) > Solo spread (1.8) — panel reduces high-end optimism but exposes uniform low-end consensus"
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},
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"outlier_flags_1_5_sigma": [],
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"verdict": "NO GO",
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"verdict_rationale": "The panel mean (4.29) is the lowest of the three proposals and 0.71 points below the Opus 5 baseline. Critically, no outlier exists — the scores cluster tightly (σ=0.89), indicating unanimous consensus that this proposal is not viable. The panel identifies 9 cross-cutting fatal flaws: (1) Financial: $2.7M headline is 7x-10x wrong against own inputs ($269K actual); Stripe understated by ~$11K/year; CAC absent; 57% online share unverified. (2) Team: No named founder/team; 116-hr build is 4-10x too low; 5 regulated activities with zero legal support. (3) Market: TeacherLists already solves the exact same problem free for 2M lists; Target has native School List Assist; zero technical moat. (4) Execution: Amazon PA-API 5 removed Cart API support; Target has no self-serve multi-item cart API; Walmart requires separate catalog matching; BTS 2026 already missed. (5) Legal: Charitable solicitation registration needed in 40+ states ($30-75K); COPPA exposure; FTC fines up to $50K+ per violation. Compliance costs ($60K-$150K initial) exceed projected Year 1 revenue ($3K-$14K). The unregistered domain (9 days post-proposal) and copy-pasted CartMyList content in Sections 7-9 confirm operational immaturity. The panel is unanimous: NO GO."
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}
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},
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"cross_cutting_findings": {
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"panel_value_proposition": "ERROR DETECTION, NOT SCORE ELEVATION",
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"explanation": "The 8-judge panel caught 14 material errors that the solo Opus 5 baseline missed or underweighted: (1) RFP Tank: 3 conflicting Y1 ARR figures, CLEATUS as direct competitor, GovEagle 15x pricing inconsistency, no privacy policy. (2) VentureBuilt: Contractor budget 4-7x broken, run-rate vs recognized revenue switch, LivePlan/IdeaProof uniqueness contradiction, 37 engagements + 950 hrs + MSP day job = capacity impossibility. (3) CartMySupply: 7x headline revenue error, TeacherLists free incumbent, Amazon PA-API Cart removal, COPPA/charitable solicitation launch blockers, 116-hr estimate 4-10x too low. The panel's value is adversarial integrity — lowering variance in BLIND errors, not lowering variance in scores.",
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"model_consistency": {
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"gemini_pro": {
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"band_a_vs_band_b": "Gemini Pro scored RFP Tank 6.7 (Band A) vs 3.0 (Band B Market) — 3.7 point divergence on the same proposal. This is the largest intra-model split in the panel and indicates that Band A generalist scoring without specialist cross-check can be systematically over-optimistic."
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},
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"deepseek_v4_pro": {
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"band_a_vs_band_b": "DeepSeek V4 Pro scored RFP Tank 6.2 (Band A) vs 3.0 (Band B Execution) — 3.2 point divergence. On CartMySupply, DeepSeek scored 4.3 (Primary) vs 3.3 (Execution) — 1.0 point divergence. On VentureBuilt, DeepSeek scored 6.4 (CC-C) vs 2.8 (Execution) — 3.6 point divergence. The model is highly consistent within role but diverges strongly between generalist and specialist lenses."
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}
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},
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"fatal_flaws_frequency": {
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"revenue_arithmetic_errors": 3,
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"competitive_mispositioning": 3,
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"execution_infeasibility": 3,
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"legal_compliance_blockers": 2,
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"team_capacity_impossibility": 2,
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"missing_cac_ltv": 2
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}
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},
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"integrity_gate_checklist": {
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"score_arithmetic_verified": true,
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"panel_means_computed": true,
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"baseline_deltas_computed": true,
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"outlier_flags_1_5_sigma_applied": true,
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"verdicts_derived_from_panel_not_solo": true,
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"product_thesis_tested": true,
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"thesis_failure_explained": true,
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"all_8_judges_per_proposal_accounted": true,
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"cross_proposal_consistency_checked": true,
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"no_credential_leakage": true
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},
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"final_recommendations": {
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"rfp_tank": "Kill. The proposal requires fundamental rewrite: cut scope to 2 features, extend timeline to 20 weeks, hire second dev before Month 1, fix financial model, add privacy policy/ToS, and address CLEATUS competitive threat. Estimated rework: 40+ hours."
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,
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"venturebuilt_v2": "Proceed with 6 conditions. The service-first pivot is correct. Fix contractor budget, re-state Y2 on recognized revenue, clear uniqueness claim, add named contractor, and complete legal/trademark clearance before Phase 2. Estimated rework: 15-20 hours."
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,
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"cartmysupply": "Kill. The core idea (PDF-to-cart) is valid but the business model, competitive positioning, and legal structure are unrecoverable at current scope. Minimum viable path: descope to single-retailer (Amazon-only), no donations, no child data, $4.99 one-off cart, on-site delivery only, BTS 2027 target. This is essentially a different product. Estimated rework: 60+ hours (full rebuild)."
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}
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}
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