v4.1 go-live cut, Moonshot to Mistral swap, v5.x superseded
Mark v5.0/v5.1 SUPERSEDED (error-detection thesis failed at -0.40 delta); v4.1 is canonical. Cut v4.1 proposal with 12 version strings bumped. Moonshot to Mistral across production seats; production worker de-kimi'd 2026-08-18. Data-retention posture corrected 7/9 to 8/9 no-training (DeepSeek sole exception). Reconciled COGS with measured Mistral spend. Committed deployed v4.0 content and research docs to resolve the repo/live fork.
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<body>
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<main class="wrap">
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<!-- ====== HERO ====== -->
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<header class="hero" style="text-align:center;padding:80px 0 60px">
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<div class="badge">v5.0 · Pre-Revenue · Validation-Tested</div>
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<h1 style="font-size:44px;letter-spacing:-1px">14 blind errors your solo model missed</h1>
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<p class="sub" style="font-size:20px;max-width:840px;margin:0 auto">
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A solo frontier model gives you a smooth, confident score. An 11-judge panel gives you the
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14 things it was wrong about. VerdictTank does not sell you a higher number. It sells you
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the errors that number was hiding.
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</p>
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<div class="meta" style="justify-content:center;margin-top:24px">
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<span><b>Category:</b> AI Proposal Review & Error Detection</span>
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<span><b>Panel:</b> 11 seats · 9 vendors</span>
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<span><b>Architecture:</b> <a href="architecture.html">Full technical document</a></span>
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<span><b>Judge pool:</b> <a href="judge-pool-spec.md">Spec v2.3</a></span>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- ====== NAVIGATION ====== -->
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<nav class="toc">
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<div class="wrap">
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<ol>
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<li><a href="#thesis">1. The Thesis</a></li>
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<li><a href="#pipeline">2. Pipeline Story</a></li>
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<li><a href="#validation">3. Validation Data</a></li>
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<li><a href="#errors">4. The 14 Errors</a></li>
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<li><a href="#panel">5. Judge Pool v2.3</a></li>
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<li><a href="#worked">6. Worked Example</a></li>
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<li><a href="#pricing">7. Pricing</a></li>
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<li><a href="#competitive">8. Competitive Landscape</a></li>
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<li><a href="#deployment">9. Deployment</a></li>
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<li><a href="#legal">10. Legal & Compliance</a></li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</nav>
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<!-- ====== 1. THESIS ====== -->
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<section id="thesis">
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<h2><span class="n">01</span>The Thesis Changed, Because the Data Said So</h2>
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<p class="lead">
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VerdictTank v4.0 was sold on a claim we could not defend: that a multimodel panel produces a
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better score than a single strong model. On 2026-08-12 we ran that claim against real proposals
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and it failed. What we found instead is a stronger product.
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</p>
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<div class="statgrid">
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<div class="stat stat--hero"><div class="v">14</div><div class="k">Material errors caught</div></div>
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<div class="stat stat--bad"><div class="v">-0.40</div><div class="k">Aggregate score delta</div></div>
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<div class="stat"><div class="v">3</div><div class="k">Real proposals scored</div></div>
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<div class="stat"><div class="v">11</div><div class="k">Judge seats, 9 vendors</div></div>
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</div>
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<div class="callout callout--fail">
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<h4 style="margin-top:0">What failed</h4>
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<p style="margin-bottom:0">
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The score-elevation thesis. Across three real proposals the panel mean came in
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<strong>0.40 points below</strong> the solo baseline. The panel did not lift scores. On two
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of three proposals it pushed them down. We are publishing that result rather than burying it,
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because the reason it happened is the product.
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="callout callout--win">
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<h4 style="margin-top:0">What worked</h4>
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<p style="margin-bottom:0">
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Error detection density. The same panel run surfaced <strong>14 material errors</strong> that
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the solo baseline missed or underweighted: revenue arithmetic that was wrong by a factor of
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seven, a funded direct competitor the solo pass never named, a launch-blocking compliance
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cost larger than projected first-year revenue. None of those show up as a score. All of them
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decide whether the proposal wins.
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="positioning-statement">
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You do not buy VerdictTank to get a higher score.<br>
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You buy it to find the $60K compliance hole and the broken contractor budget before you ship.
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</div>
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<h3>Why the spread is the signal</h3>
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<p>
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A single model scoring alone produces low variance. It reads the document once, forms one
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coherent opinion, and every dimension it emits is downstream of that opinion. The result feels
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authoritative precisely because nothing inside it disagrees.
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</p>
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<p>
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An 11-seat panel of nine different vendors cannot produce that coherence, and the incoherence
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is diagnostic. When a Financial Integrity judge scores a proposal 8.2 while an
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Execution Feasibility judge scores the same document 2.8, that 5.4-point spread is not noise.
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It is a precise statement: <em>the money works, the delivery plan does not</em>. A solo model
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averages that tension away into a single confident 6.1 and tells you nothing actionable.
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</p>
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<div class="highlight">
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<strong>Measured, not asserted:</strong> on every one of the three validated proposals, panel
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spread exceeded solo spread. RFP Tank 3.7 vs 1.4. VentureBuilt 5.4 vs 2.4. CartMySupply
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2.6 vs 1.8. Widening variance is the intended behavior, not a defect to tune out.
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</div>
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</section>
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